There have been many rumours about an upcoming fall election over the issue of EI. Here are some factors that help shift the balances on whether we will have an election.
Factors for an election:
- The NDP have been all riled up at their convention and want another election to prove they can do better. Ed Broadbent thinks that in the next election, NDP will get the most seats they ever got (above 44).
- The Liberals will want an election before the economy starts to regain to much strength. (If there is an election when the economy is regaining strength, the Liberals can’t campaign on the issue that the Conservatives are bad for the economy.)
- The Conservatives probably will not want to satisfy the Liberal demands on the EI issue, making the Liberals vote against them.
- All the media alerts and rumours of on election makes everybody prepare for an election and makes them more likely to want one.
- Duceppe has pushed off rumours of his retirement and said he will be ready for an election as soon as this fall.
Factors against an election:
- The polls are too tight for either of the large parties to expect a majority.
- Another Conservative minority goverment would increase calls for Harper’s resignation.
- A Liberal defeat would bring back memories of Dion.
- Canadians might still remember the unpopular coalition making the opposition less likely to force an election.
- Canadians don’t want an election! Its just been a year since the last one.
- Its a big waste of money seeing the seat count in Parliament would not change very much.
My final verdict: I do not expect to see an election this fall.